{"id":24364,"date":"2015-06-19T13:27:00","date_gmt":"2015-06-19T13:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kepner-tregoe.com\/the-value-of-should-a-2nd-look-at-deflategate-charges\/"},"modified":"2025-07-10T14:39:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:39:04","slug":"the-value-of-should-a-2nd-look-at-deflategate-charges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kepner-tregoe.com\/fr\/blogs\/the-value-of-should-a-2nd-look-at-deflategate-charges\/","title":{"rendered":"The Value of Should: A 2nd Look at \u201cDeflategate\u201d Charges"},"content":{"rendered":"

A key benefit of following rational, clear thinking processes is being able to avoid being dragged into a tailspin of groupthink, particularly when that\u00a0group is in panic mode.<\/p>\n

When \u201cDeflategate\u201d \u2013 the charges that the New England Patriots cheated in a very cold AFC Championship game by illegally deflating the footballs \u2013 first hit the news, the rush to judgment was as quick as it was chaotic. Because of the emotional baggage, and the sketchy history of the team\u2019s pushing boundaries, the court of public opinion took no time to deliberate, and judged the Patriots guilty of sins incalculable.<\/p>\n

The actual deliberation of the case, by the League\u2019s commissioner, soon found quarterback Tom Brady guilty \u2013 not of cheating, but of not cooperating. The punishment was based on a damning assessment of the situation \u2013 summed up in \u201cthe Wells Report\u201d.<\/p>\n

That report, however, had the air let out of it in last week\u2019s New York Times\u2019 Sunday Review<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Researchers Kevin Hassett and Stan A. Veuger called into question every level of detail in the report \u2013 including the very deviation itself. Initial press coverage focused on the difference in air pressure in the footballs, as measured at halftime and compared to the start of the game. The media, and later Wells, took it for granted that, because the Patriots\u2019 balls measured a lower average pressure than their opponents\u2019, that was a problem.<\/p>\n

\u201cSituation Appraisal\u201d tells us that, before we can determine whether or not we have a problem, we must first know that we have a deviation. That is, \u201cActual\u201d and \u201cShould\u201d must be different. Hassett and Veuger challenge the NFL\u2019s finding with what should be a perfectly normal question: Essentially, what\u2019s the deviation?<\/p>\n

The deviation was not that the Patriots\u2019 footballs\u2019 measures were lower than an expected value \u2013 it was that they were lower than the Indianapolis Colts\u2019 footballs. In other words, the NFL was comparing two Actuals against each other, without comparing to a Should.<\/p>\n

People often roll their eyes when we tell them the first question, before even beginning Problem Analysis, is \u201cIs there a deviation?\u201d Of course there\u2019s a deviation, they say, or we wouldn\u2019t be here. There\u2019s two pieces of information we need, though, to determine if a deviation exists \u2013 \u201cShould\u201d and \u201cActual\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cActual\u201d seems simple enough \u2013 but it\u2019s not always easy to determine. Flaws in testing can lead to strange results. On the one hand, Actual could be tested by taking a census or by taking a sample \u2013 and different methods can lead to different results. (As an example, all of the Patriots\u2019 footballs were tested immediately after coming off of a cold field; only one-third of the Colts\u2019 footballs were tested, and after warming up in a locker room).<\/p>\n

If, as troubleshooters, we don\u2019t know (or don\u2019t understand) the methods for determining Actual, we can easily go down a wrong path.<\/p>\n

Likewise, to know if there\u2019s a deviation, we need to know \u201cShould\u201d. That is, what is actually, truly, physically supposed to be happening. Not \u201cwhat would we like to be happening\u201d, but what is achievable. We work with clients who have never proven that Should can be accomplished, trying to find the root cause of their deficiencies; others base Should on what they want to happen, and then try to use Problem Analysis to figure out what\u2019s wrong.<\/p>\n

In the Deflategate case, an even greater error appears to have happened \u2013 Should was ignored entirely. The experts suggested that the deviation was not in fact that New England\u2019s footballs had a lower-than-expected pressure at halftime, but rather Indianapolis\u2019 had a higher<\/u>-than-expected reading.<\/p>\n

For whatever reason \u2013 perhaps because it\u2019s so damn easy to hate the Patriots \u2013 the Should value was not used in the analysis.<\/p>\n

Yes, Problem Analysis tells us it\u2019s important to compare and contrast different factors \u2013 that\u2019s the rationale behind IS and IS NOT, after all \u2013 but not in the absence of any other data.<\/p>\n

So the next time you\u2019re in a meeting, and the conversation is in a tailspin about why one performer is doing well\/poorly and another is doing the opposite \u2013 stop and think for a moment: Do we even know what is supposed to be happening (\u201cShould\u201d)? And do we have data to tell us where these performers actually are relative to Should?<\/p>\n

If the Wells Report had stopped to ask those questions, we could have avoided a lot of drama \u2013 and perhaps avoided branding a future Hall of Fame quarterback as a cheater.<\/p>\n

Tom Brady appealed his suspension on Tuesday. The ten-hour session was closed to the media, so we may never know if he used his blue Situation Appraisal card to explain his innocence or not.<\/p>\n

Clearly, we think he should have.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A key benefit of following rational, clear thinking processes is being able to avoid being dragged into a tailspin of groupthink, particularly when that\u00a0group is in panic mode. When \u201cDeflategate\u201d \u2013 the charges that the New England Patriots cheated in a very cold AFC Championship game by illegally deflating the footballs \u2013 first hit the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[119],"class_list":["post-24364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-other"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Value of Should: A 2nd Look at \u201cDeflategate\u201d Charges - Kepner-Tregoe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The NY Times and some KT thinking question judgments made about deflated footballs in the AFC championship game. 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